The Right Numbers?

It’s been quite a week in politics on both sides of the Atlantic. On Monday, Mark Carney pulled off one of the most remarkable victories in Canada’s recent history, giving the Liberals another term in power, which would have seemed highly unlikely just a couple of months ago. Midweek, Donald Trump passed his 100^th day in office as President of the USA for a second time. He marked the occasion with a rally replete with his views on the successes of his term so far, and his distaste for opponents. Yesterday, in local elections and a by-election in England, the public registered their discontent with the still-young Labour government.

In the end, politics comes down to a numbers game, so it’s fitting to have a look at what the numbers are saying in these three countries. In Canada, Carney’s triumph was a little dulled by falling just short of a majority in parliament. It’s also notable that the Conservatives, the main opposition, who until recently were expected to win outright, actually made gains – winning 24 more seats than they held pre-election, accounting for over 40% of the vote. Their Trumpian leader, Poilievre, lost his seat, in a striking vindication of Carney’s strategy of running for Canada against Trump. As an astute Conservative remarked, he managed to distract Canadians from any stumbles, and from the domestic economic issues that had previously looked like assuring Conservative victory. Among 18-34 year olds, 41% voted Conservative compared to 34% for the Liberals, a sign that the economy will remain a battleground post-election, as young people struggle to afford housing and necessities. Younger Canadians are also less worried about Trump than their parents’ generation. Carney’s narrow victory therefore has some features in common with what has been termed Starmer’s ‘loveless landslide’ in last year’s UK election. Both leaders are under pressure to deliver for discontented voters.

Meanwhile, to the South, Donald Trump celebrated his 100^th day in power with a lengthy speech at a rally in Detroit that was sometimes surreal, sometimes dystopian. I found myself mesmerised into watching it, late on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. At one point Trump declared to his loyal audience that he ‘missed the campaign’ – and you could sense why, he’s much more in his element in many ways at a rally of the faithful, than in the everyday business of governing. The extraordinary thing about the numbers Trump shared in his speech to underline his successes, is that many of them were simply untrue. A BBC fact check of the speech found that claims relating to falling gasoline and egg prices were both unfounded. By contrast, claims around a record fall in the number of illegal migrant crossings at the Southern border are largely borne out by the figures. Trump showed a video of people being deported and sent to the notorious prison in El Salvador. Above a movie-style soundtrack, the crowd chanted ‘USA, USA’. Meanwhile, rumours that his popularity was slipping were dismissed as ‘fake polls’ – this summary of Trump’s term in charts shows, however, that that decline is very real. It also illustrates the scale of Trump’s use of executive orders to govern, circumventing conventional regulation or legislation. Not surprisingly, he faces a massive number of lawsuits as a result.

In what might be considered the calmer waters of English local elections and a key by-election in Runcorn, all was not going well for the recently-elected Labour government, or for the Conservatives, struggling in opposition following a major defeat in last year’s General Election. As widely expected, Reform, the latest guise of Nigel Farage’s right-wing party, has been the beneficiary of a dissatisfied electorate. In Runcorn, Reform returned another MP to the House of Commons by a margin of just 6 votes. In a historic Labour stronghold, this was a notable result. The Prime Minister has declared the results so far ‘disappointing’ for Labour, which is also losing council seats. MPs to his left in the party are urging him to listen to voters and change course on controversial welfare cuts, but Starmer is saying that voters need to see change happening faster, and points to how the government has started to cut NHS waiting lists and stabilise the economy.

The forecast for British politics looks torrid, as Reform have so far gained control of 7 councils – mostly from the beleaguered Conservatives - and one mayoralty. The former Conservative MP, Andrea Jenkyns, has become Mayor for Reform in Lincolnshire with a majority of 40,000. Party leader, Nigel Farage, who has been a bit quiet about his previous links to Donald Trump and Elon Musk of late, is now saying that he wants to unleash ‘British DOGE’ on county councils, auditing them for waste and excesses. Whether any such numbers will add up is an entirely different matter. BBC analysis has shown that of the $160 billion saved by DOGE in the States – already a fraction of the $2 trillion savings initially predicted – only a minority is fully accounted for. So much for the Right and numbers….